In Part 1 (published on March 2), I picked teams from twelve lower mid-major conferences. How’d they do in their respective conference tournaments?
The Low Mid-Majors are without question the “True Davids” of college basketball because they represent the longest of long shots in March.
I have followed the Lower Mid-Majors each season since 2017, examining how they fared against major competition in the pre-conference season and in conference play. The intent is to size up team prospects for postseason success. What I’m looking for are teams that can win their conference tournaments (thus qualifying for March Madness) and then win at least one game in the national tournament.
Nineteen conferences constitute the group of Lower Mid-Majors of primary interest to me. They include Atlantic Sun (e.g., Florida Gulf Coast), American East (e.g., Vermont), Big Sky (e.g., Portland State), Big South (e.g., Winthrop), Big West (e.g., UC San Diego), Coastal (e.g., UNC Wilmington), Horizon (e.g., Northern Kentucky), Ivy (e.g., Princeton), MAAC (e.g., Saint Peter’s), MEAC (e.g., Morgan State), Missouri Valley (e.g., Murray State), NEC (e.g., Central Connecticut), Ohio Valley (e.g., Morehead State), Patriot (e.g., Colgate), SWAC (e.g., Jackson State), Southern (e.g., UNC Greensboro), Southland (e.g., McNeese State), Summit (e.g., South Dakota State), and WAC (e.g., California Baptist).
My March 2 conference and team picks were (article here). I correctly picked 7 of the 12 conference tournament champs (58%).
BIG SOUTH: High Point (green, won the conference tournament), Winthrop (lost the championship game)
BIG WEST: Hawaii, University of California, San Diego (lost in the quarterfinals)
COASTAL: University of North Carolina, Wilmington, College of Charleston (both lost in the quarterfinals), Hofstra won the conference tournament
IVY: Yale (lost in championship game)
MAAC: Merrimack (lost championship game), Saint Peter’s (lost in the quarterfinals), Siena won the conference tournament.
MEAC: Howard
MISSOURI VALLEY: Belmont (lost in the quarterfinals), Northern Iowa won the conference tournament
NEC: Long Island
OHIO VALLEY: Tennessee State
PATRIOT: Navy (lost in the semifinals), Lehigh won the conference tournament
SOUTHLAND: Stephen F. Austin (lost the championship game) and McNeese State
WAC: Utah Valley (lost the championship game) and California Baptist.
On March 2, I also picked the five teams I believed had the best chance of winning their conference tournaments and advancing in March Madness play: Belmont, McNeese, Yale, High Point, and UNCW (2 of 5, 40% correct). My next four picks were Winthrop, Hawaii, Howard, and Tennessee State (3 of 4, 75% correct). That’s five correct picks out of nine overall picks (56%).
To repeat, they are McNeese, High Point, Hawaii, Howard, and Tennessee State. After Selection Sunday, I’ll be back with Edition #3 of 2026 to assess each team’s probability of advancing.
POSTSCRIPT: I often miss teams that surprise in March Madness. This year, I wish I had picked these teams: Siena (MAAC), Northern Iowa (MVC), and Maryland, Baltimore County (America East). California Baptist (WAC) and Penn (Ivy) close out the “I Missed Out” Top Five.
On the flip side, there is one team that blew my mind when it lost early in its first conference tournament. 25-6 Belmont (MVC), my #1 pick going into conference tournament week, also had the highest NET ranking among my lower mid-major picks (#55). Belmont didn’t just lose; it was blown out (100-79) by Drake, a previous high-flyer but a ’25-26 also-ran. True to form, Drake was promptly blown out in the next round by UIC (72-51), ending its season at 14-20. In my assessment, Belmont still deserves to be in the tournament.
So does Yale, the odds-on favorite to win the Ivy. Eli had the championship game won until it didn’t. As often happens (coach’s choice), rather than foul with a 3-point lead and only a few seconds left, Yale let TJ Power take a 3-pointer. Swish! Power tied the game, and Penn won in OT. He had 44 points, half of the Quakers’ 88 points. He’s a player to watch.
With Belmont vanquished, McNeese (26-5) is now the team with the highest NET (#56) of my six remaining lower mid-major picks, followed by High Point (#76).
