Let’s examine how to build an NBA championship team.
If you are a casual NBA fan and took a second to look at the NBA standings at this point in the season, it might catch you off guard. Stephen Curry, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant are all on teams that are sitting outside of the playoffs, or barely inside. And then, at the top of the west, you see Minnesota and Oklahoma City. Most casuals would have trouble naming more than one player on each of those two top teams. That’s precisely why they are sitting at the top of the conference.
If you delve into the statistics a little bit, Kevin Durant is putting up career numbers in efficiency and production. LeBron James remains one of the most impactful players in the NBA, despite being 38 years old. Steph Curry still leads the NBA in 3-point makes per game. The data even says it. Kevin Durant ranks 10th in the NBA in PIE (Player Impact Estimate). Lebron James ranks 7th.
With both James and Durant having All-NBA teammates, why are they not performing better in the league? The answer lies in the stats.
Over the last decade or so, several organizations have attempted to assemble what is known as The Big 3, that is, assembling a group of three MVP-caliber players with the hopes of a cruising season. The most recent example is this year’s Phoenix Suns, as well as the early 20th-century Brooklyn Nets, the 2022 Lakers, the Clippers this year (I’ll dive into that one later), and perhaps the most notable, the 2016-2019 Golden State Warriors.
There are countless more examples of this in NBA history, but let us look at the following three teams: the 2021 Brooklyn Nets, the 2022 Lakers, and the 2023 Phoenix Suns. Numerous factors contribute to why these teams haven’t been working out—health, usage, coaching, etc. But perhaps the most important reason is that the remaining 12 players are rostered.
As of the 2023-24 NBA season, the NET rating is up to date. It takes into account game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses of a player. Essentially, it reveals who is doing the most to help their team win. (Spoiler alert: Every player in the Top 10 of this stat is currently sitting on a Top 3 team in their respective conference, and only four of these players are All-Stars. That might sound fake, but it’s not.
Right now, it seems like the Celtics are the team to beat in the NBA. Their star players hardly ever have to play the final quarter of the game, and the result is often determined by halftime. This is mainly due to the four Celtic players who feature in the Top 10 of the NET rating. These players are Derrick White, who has the highest overall NET rating in the NBA, Payton Pritchard, Jayson Tatum, and Kristaps Porzingis. These are the players who are doing the most to help their team win, wherever, whenever, and however.
That statistic is so significant that the first players to feature on the leaderboard, whose teams are sitting outside the playoffs in their conference, are the recently traded Immanuel Quickley and Bruce Brown, 96 spots down. Additionally, 22 of the top 23 players in this category are either on the hottest team in the NBA, the Clippers, or a top 3-seeded team.
The first player to cameo on this list that is on either the Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, or Los Angeles Lakers is Jusuf Nurkic, slightly behind the 50th spot. Let that sink in. This statistic alone should render the “Big 3” era of the NBA obsolete. The last three NBA champions have proved this themselves.
Last year’s Denver Nuggets had a star, an exceptional second man, and some of the best role players in the NBA, along with a key defender. In fact, the Nuggets’ entire starting lineup is featured in the Top 30 in NET rating. The 2022 Warriors were something similar. Steph Curry, their face, with Andrew Wiggins emerging as the second man, the lockdown defender, and the shooting and defense that surrounded him. No 2nd or 3rd perennial All-Star. Just a go-to man, and great role models around him.
The Perfect Championship Roster
I’ve covered this topic briefly in past articles, but what is the ideal roster formation of a championship basketball team? How many stars, shooters, and defenders do you need? Well, today, I’m going to answer that question. After diving into data about some of the recent NBA champions, you will find several things in common. A top-three player in the league, an emerged or solidified second star, and shooting and defense around the two.
Other facts 2023 NBA Playoffs….
-Five Nuggets in Top 12 of Total Possessions.
-Excluding warriors, the top 37 players in pace in the playoffs, all eliminated in the first round.
-Only player in the Top 15 in usage percentage to feature in the NBA finals is Jokic
-Offensive rebounds are not crucial in the playoffs.
-Only four players featured in the top 30 of ORTG that didn’t make it to the second round
How about the 2022 NBA playoffs?
-Six Warriors were in the Top 15 of Net Rating
-Teams with pace were eliminated early
-Steph and Tatum were the only players in the Top 40 in usage percentage to play in the Finals.
Key takeaways for building a team…
-Key rebounder
-Lots of players at the top of the NET rating
-Balanced usage percentage outside of the top player
-Not a big offensive rebounding team
-Pace is unimportant.
Leading teams for each:
Rebounder: Phoenix, Minnesota, Denver
NET rating: Celtics, Minnesota, OKC, Philly, Nuggets
Balanced usage: Nuggets, Celtics, Thunder, Clippers
Pace slow: Clippers, Nuggets, Celtics
Key needs:
Go-to guy (top 3 players)
Second man
Two more reliable two-way players
Defense off the bench
Bucket-getter off the bench
Rebounder
Shooter
Who checks the boxes for these?
S tier: Nuggets, Celtics
A Tier: Clippers, Bucks, Philly, Lakers
B Tier: OKC, Minnesota, Cleveland, Indiana, Dallas, Warriors, Suns, Pelicans
