The Heisman Trophy frontrunner is Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin (+175), followed by Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza (+225). They’re logical and safe picks, but unfortunately myopic. My take is that Alabama’s Ty Simpson (+350) and Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed (+750) should be the favorites to win the Heisman.
Despite what it represents, the Heisman Trophy doesn’t necessarily go to the best player in college football. Instead, it’s awarded to the player who combines exceptional performance and talent with attention, storylines, and big moments.
Julian Sayin and Fernando Mendoza are having remarkable seasons, with statistics that could make them Heisman winners. Sayin is far and ahead of any QB in completion percentage (80.7), ranking 7 points higher than Washington’s Demond Williams Jr., who has the second-highest completion percentage (73.1) this season. For comparison, former Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow, whose 2019 team ranks among the best in NCAA history with star WRs like Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, finished the season with a completion percentage of 76.3. Sayin, in short, has been a near-perfect QB.
Mendoza is receiving well-deserved attention for his consistency. He ranks second in touchdowns (25) and fifth in completion percentage (72.3). Part of his appeal lies in leading Indiana—a program historically known for underperforming—to a consecutive 9‑0 start, including a victory over National Championship contender Oregon. Unsurprisingly, Mendoza ranks second in passing efficiency (185.23), trailing only Sayin (197.11).
However, both Sayin’s and Mendoza’s credentials are lacking. Neither player had delivered as many Heisman-defining moments as Ty Simpson or Marcel Reed.
TY SIMPSON: Being ranked 13th in passing efficiency (162.63), 24th in completion percentage (67.8), and 12th in passing TDs (20), Simpson’s stats are not as impressive as Sayin’s or Mendoza’s. But when it comes to winning the Heisman, they don’t need to be. More critical to winning the award is how the team is doing. The Crimson Tide boasts the most impressive winning streak in college football, having beaten Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee, and concluded their last game with another SEC win over South Carolina.
MARCEL REED: Of the top four Heisman contenders, Reed ranks the lowest in all categories, barring the rushing metrics. He ranks 29th in passing efficiency (155.49), 27th in passing TDs (17), and is not ranked in the top 50 for completion percentage. However, if there were an objective ranking for Heisman moments, Reed would clearly be ranked first. Reed is leading a Texas A&M team—known for underperforming—to being the only undefeated team in the SEC. Reed’s first Heisman-defining moment happened in Week 3, when he threw a last-minute touchdown to Nate Boerkircher for a 41-40 win over Notre Dame. The second came when Reed led Texas A&M to an impressive 49-25 victory against LSU—leading to a $53 million buyout and near desertion of LSU fans at Death Valley. Another crucial aspect of favoring Reed over the other Heisman candidates is his playing style. It’s hard to imagine that his breakaway speed and shiftiness won’t be a factor for the Heisman voters. After all, he’s fun to watch.
The most impressive stat for QBs isn’t blowing up the scoreboard against lower-level teams, but showing up time and time again, making big plays in big moments—Simpson and Reed have done exactly that.
If the Heisman trophy were awarded to the best player on paper, Sayin and Mendoza are admirable picks. Football, however, is not merely a statistical profession. The Heisman trophy winner should have Heisman-defining moments during November.
–Simpson and the Crimson Tide finish off their season playing a still highly-talented LSU team, one of the best defenses in college football at Auburn (one of three teams not to allow over 24 points this season), and a ranked 11th Oklahoma team.
–Reed will also have several big games and potential Heisman-defining moments this month. Texas A&M is playing a ranked #19 Missouri this week and finishes off their season in Austin against #13 Texas, whose momentum has fully brewed and is now unleashed.
True, Sayin, and the Buckeyes will finish off their season playing #21 Michigan, but that is the only game that will attract widespread attention. And besides their Week 1 Victory against Texas, the Ohio State-Michigan game will be their only must-watch game this season. Meanwhile, Mendoza and the Hoosiers do not play a single ranked opponent to conclude their season, with Penn State being the most challenging opponent, a team in decline.
While Indiana’s win over Oregon is arguably the biggest win in college football, Simpson and Reed have the most impressive resumes in big games, which should make the Heisman forecasters more optimistic in their ability to perform in November.
