Remember to play it smart, avoid unnecessary risks, and use this guide to make an informed and winning pick. It will get you one step closer to taking home the entire survivor pool.
Welcome to the start of the NFL season! Survivor pools are all about getting off to a strong start, and this guide is here to help you navigate Week 1 with confidence.
We’ve sorted through the 2025 schedule and broken it down into three tiers: the “No-Brainers” you can count on, the “Risky Business” picks that could pay off, and the “Stay Aways” that are best left alone for now.
Let’s dive in and lock in our first winning pick of the year.
TIER 1: THE NO-BRAINERS
This tier is all about the games where the choice is obvious. These are the heavy favorites with large point spreads, offering the highest probability of moving you on to Week 2. While no NFL game is a guaranteed win, these are the safest bets to make.
Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos | Pick: DEN | (Recommended PRIME PICK)
The Case for Denver: The Broncos are easily the safest pick this week, with the largest point spread, which is a strong sign of their high chance of winning outright. This is a classic mismatch between a solid team and an offense in flux, especially with Denver’s top-ranked defense and coaching under Sean Payton. Bo Nix, the second-year quarterback, is being named by some as a “cover machine,” going 8-0 SU and ATS when he is favored in his career. But the focus for a survivor pool is the win, not the spread, and the Broncos’ clear advantage in quarterback talent and home-field advantage makes them the most logical, low-risk choice.
Risks & Counterarguments: One article notes a trend that teams with an elite defense one year often regress the next, and that road underdogs with 3-6 wins in the previous season and a spread between +4.5 and +9 are 22-5 ATS when facing a team that made the playoffs the prior year. However, the sheer mismatch in quarterback talent and home-field advantage, combined with the large spread, makes the Broncos the most logical and low-risk choice. The risk of the Titans covering is real, but a victory for the Broncos is the most probable outcome of any game on the board.
New York Giants @ Washington Commanders | Pick: WAS
The Case for Washington: The Commanders are another excellent choice, thanks to their home-field advantage against a struggling divisional rival. The Giants’ offense, led by Daniel Jones, has been a money-loser for bettors, with a 3-13 ATS record over the last two seasons. On the other hand, Washington is a “hype team” this year with a big jump in Super Bowl odds, and their second-year QB, Jayden Daniels, will get to play his first game back at home.
Risks & Counterarguments: The biggest risk is that it’s a divisional rivalry, and divisional underdogs in the first two weeks of the season have a 62-23-3 ATS record since 2004. This trend suggests the Giants could keep it tight, but the statistical and historical struggles of their offense make the Commanders a very high-probability winner for a survivor pool.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles | Pick: PHI
The Case for Philadelphia: The Eagles are a powerful team, especially at home. They’re a remarkable 17-0 SU as a home favorite under coach Nick Sirianni when they take a 7+ point lead, and Jalen Hurts is an incredible 26-3 SU at home as a favorite. They’re also the defending Super Bowl champions, unlikely to have a “Super Bowl hangover.”
Risks & Counterarguments: The primary risk is the potential for heated divisional rivalry. The favorite is only 3-7 ATS in the season opener since 2015, which shows how unpredictable these matchups can be. While the Eagles are the better team, you might want to save them for a week when they have a more favorable non-divisional opponent.
TIER 2: RISKY BUSINESS
This tier comprises games with a narrower point spread, making the favorite less likely to win. These picks offer a higher risk but can save a top-tier team for a later week. Choosing a team from this list requires a deeper understanding of the matchup and can give you an edge.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns | Pick: CIN
The Case for Cincinnati: The Bengals are a strong pick due to their offensive superiority, led by a healthy Joe Burrow. They finished last season winning their final five games and have a proven record as a successful road favorite.
Risks & Counterarguments: Despite their talent, the Bengals are a risky Week 1 pick because of a history of poor early-season performance; Joe Burrow is just 1-9 SU in his first two games of the year. This is also a divisional road game against a talented Browns defense, which makes it a tough spot.
Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints | Pick: ARI
The Case for Arizona: The Cardinals are a significant favorite at −6 against a Saints team in disarray. The Saints are a home underdog, and historically, teams in this position have struggled early in the season. The Saints’ quarterback situation is a mess, with both options having a combined 0-7 SU record as starters. This instability at the most important position gives Arizona a clear advantage.
Risks & Counterarguments: The red flag is that the Cardinals are on the road. A trend warns against betting on favorites of +6 who missed the playoffs the previous season. While the data on the Saints’ QB struggles is compelling, the Cardinals aren’t as surefire as a home favorite like Denver or Washington.
Carolina Panthers @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Pick: JAX
The Case for Jacksonville: The Panthers have a clear history of struggles, having lost 62 straight games when trailing by nine or more points and allowing the highest third-down conversion rate last season. The Jaguars have a new offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, who has a track record of improving offenses, and Trevor Lawrence has performed well as a home favorite.
Risks & Counterarguments: A small spread of −3 makes this a very risky pick, as the game is expected to be close. Lawrence and the Jaguars also have a history of slow starts, with a 4-12 SU record in the first four weeks of the season. Given the tight spread, there are many safer picks for Week 1.
TIER 3: STAY AWAY
This is the most important tier for any survivor pool player. These are the games you should avoid at all costs. While they might seem tempting, the facts and trends suggest a high risk of an upset, which is the fastest way to get eliminated.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers: This game is being played on a neutral field in Brazil, which eliminates the Chiefs’ home-field advantage. The Chargers are a talented team with a new coach and a small point spread of −3.5, making this matchup too unpredictable and risky for a Week 1 survivor pick.
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills: This matchup between two of the best AFC teams could easily go either way. The Bills are a slight favorite at −1.5, but the unpredictability of a Week 1 game between two playoff-caliber teams makes this a poor choice.
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks: This classic NFC West rivalry is highly unpredictable. While the 49ers are a slight favorite at −2.5, research shows home-field advantage can be reduced in divisional games. The familiarity and intensity of a rivalry can level the playing field, making this a much riskier pick than the point spread suggests.
