A lot has happened this offseason, starting with the rebirth of the PAC-12, but I would like to focus on my local Oklahoma-based teams and answer the question, “How are they going to do?”
TULSA
Graphic courtesy News9
We begin with the Golden Hurricane, who are coming off a 3-9 season, with a single conference win in the AAC. Tulsa also has a new head coach, Tre Lamb, who is coming off a winning season at East Tennessee State. Over the offseason, Tulsa has managed to gain 21 transfers to retool their lineups, including redshirt Junior DT Tim Hardiman, rated 87 by On3’s Transfer Portal Rating and 73 according to TeamCrafters’ database of College Football ’26 ratings. These additions are the first step on the long road to transforming this program into one that can compete in a bowl game.
It won’t be this season, however. With a difficult conference draw and a team that’s still very far from the FBS level, there’s a possibility that they may not win any games this season. Even their first game, against the Abilene Christian Wildcats–a team that took Texas Tech into an extra frame in Lubbock last season–isn’t a certain W. Weaker FBS opponents, New Mexico State and Temple, aren’t pushovers either, with the Aggies projected near the top of Conference USA in defense, according to that TeamCrafters.
I think it is very likely that Tulsa will end up with only one or two wins, possibly at home against Temple and possibly at home in the opener against the Wildcats.
Oklahoma State
OSU’s Mike Gundy (photo courtesy The Stillwater News Press)
Next up, down State Highway 51, are the Oklahoma State Cowboys, a team that struggled in conference play last season, finishing without a win. Head Coach Mike Gundy was forced into a contract restructuring after the season, according to ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg.
Unfortunately for Cowboys fans, on the field, Rivals says OSU didn’t secure a 4- or 5-star recruit in the 2025 class. Rivals reported the same outcome via the Portal. Put the two together, and TeamCrafters ranks the Cowboys the worst team (on paper) in the Big 12.
Still, ESPN’s preseason College Football Power Index (FPI) predicts OSU will win either five or six games this season. I don’t think they make it there. To me, this is a two-to-three-win team, likely beating UT Martin, Tulsa, and maybe Houston, all at home. That shouldn’t be anywhere near enough to save Mike Gundy’s job. He is in a seat as hot as a tandoor oven, cooking lavash.
Oklahoma
Brent Venables (photo courtesy Athlon Sports)
Finally, we go to Norman and the Sooners. They had a 2024 season that was about what I expected from them — a good season, but not a great one — and I think that will be what you can expect from the Sooners going forward. They performed well in the Portal, securing six blue-chip transfers, and achieved a good recruiting result, led by 5-star OT Michael Fasusi, the number one tackle in this class.
But that’s not good enough in the SEC. “Good” will only give you an outside chance against teams like Texas and Ole Miss., and maybe let you play spoiler on the final day, as they did last season at home against Alabama. That could happen again with Louisiana State if the Tigers aren’t careful. Lastly, “good” isn’t what Sooner fans are used to. They are accustomed to being consistent Big 12 champions and securing marquee bowl matchups.
Bottom line? The Sooners have fallen short, and there’s heat on head coach Brent Venables. It’s possible that this team could win enough to secure a good bowl matchup, but they probably need to beat two of these teams — Michigan, Missouri, and LSU (all at home) — to reach six wins. I think they will get there, but it won’t be easy, considering OU plays five top-10 teams, according to Massey Ratings.
Conclusion
So, this is what I think Oklahoma’s FBS teams will do in the 2025 season. But knowing my luck at prognostication, come November, this column will probably end up as kindling.
