Going into Championship Week here’s how I read the tea leaves.
Here’s my second shot at calibrating the mid-majors teams that could spring first-round upsets and, perhaps, take steps beyond that. This second cut represents an update of my February Watch List (from February 8).
Here are teams that I like (listed by conference).
–Top teams are listed in BOLD.
–Teams that have moved ↑ since 2/8 are shown in italics.
–Teams that have moved ↓ since 2/8 are presented in strikeout text.
ESPN’s league tournament champ predictions (Feb 27 article by Jeff Bozello) are included.
Atlantic 10: RHODE ISLAND, ST. BONAVENTURE Bonnies are a team to watch! (ESPN–URI)
America East: Vermont (ESPN–Vermont)
Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast A weak league hurts FGCU. (ESPN–FGCU)
Big Sky: Montana (ESPN–Idaho)
Big West: UC Santa Barbara, UC Davis, UC Irvine (new) UCSB has stumbled. Irvine is peaking at the right time. (ESPN–Irvine)
Conference USA: MIDDLE TENNESSEE Nobody bets against MTSU. (ESPN–MTSU)
Horizon: Wright State, NORTHERN KENTUCKY I’m really impressed with this team. (ESPN-NKU)
Ivy: Penn (ESPN–Harvard)
Metro Atlantic: Rider (ESPN–Iona)
Mid-American: BUFFALO (ESPN–Buffalo)
MEAC: North Carolina A&T (ESPN–Hampton)
Missouri Valley: LOYOLA (IL) This is an under-the-radar team to watch. (ESPN–Loyola)
Mountain West: NEVADA-RENO, Boise State UNR is a good bet to win an NCAA first-round game. (ESPN–Nevada)
Northeast: WAGNER (ESPN–Wagner)
Ohio Valley: Belmont, MURRAY STATE Never count out MSU. (ESPN–Jacksonville State)
Southern: East Tennessee State, UNC Greensboro UNCG is peaking at the right time. (ESPN–ETSU)
Summit: South Dakota, SOUTH DAKOTA ST. Mike Daum makes SDSU a formidable team. (ESPN–South Dakota)
Sun Belt: LOUISIANA Nobody is talking about the Cajuns! They should. (ESPN–Louisiana)
WAC: NEW MEXICO STATE NMSU is my sentimental favorite–a good team in a conference that barely has a pulse. (ESPN–NMSU)
WEST COAST: GONZAGA, ST. MARY’S As I wrote on 2/8, these are major teams playing in a mid-major conference. (ESPN–Gonzaga)
*****************
When Championship Week is over, I’ll re-calibrate the list and offer my “10 picks To Surprise” in March Madness.
