Each week I pick the winners of all the NFL games (or try to, anyway) without point spreads and without bias, either.
The NFL world got turned upside down last weekend–in more ways than one. My picks went a little awry, too. I went 9-7 to bring my three-week cumulative total to 30-17 (.638). It still means I have three straight winning weeks, but there’s always room for improvement. On to Week Four….
(Note: All games will be played on Sunday afternoon unless otherwise noted.)
Green Bay 26, Chicago 23 (THURSDAY NIGHT): The league’s oldest archrivalry–and, to me, the best and most passionate–is tied at 93 wins each. The Bears have shown some life this year, but this game is at Lambeau Field. Enough said.
New Orleans 37, Miami 23 (SUNDAY MORNING, LONDON): Hopefully, Wembley Stadium will see a more competitive game this week. We know the Saints can beat a good defense on the road. We also know Jay Cutler can’t be trusted to beat the lowly Jets.
Baltimore 23, Pittsburgh 17: Part of what makes the NFL so tough to predict is the ebbs and flows from parity. As bad as the Ravens looked in London, Baltimore will be back home to play a rival they has beaten them six of the last eight times they’ve met. Meanwhile Pittsburgh has been a lackluster road team that hasn’t won in Baltimore since 2012.
Cincinnati 17, Cleveland 16: The young Browns have shown plenty of heart in losses to Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, This week they’ll be at home in the Battle of Ohio. But…. If the Bengals can come close to a win at Lambeau, then they should be able to finish the job here.
Atlanta 30, Buffalo 14: The Falcons opened a new stadium with a resounding win over a good Green Bay team. Buffalo isn’t close to being on the Packers’ level.
Dallas 34, Los Angeles Rams 20: If a mediocre team. like Washington, can get its run game going against the Rams, then how much damage will Dallas be able to do with Ezekiel Elliott, the league’s best O-line, and a home field? Alot.
Houston 20, Tennessee 17: This isn’t what they mean by “Homecoming.” Houston’s former team goes back to Texas to play the current one. AFC South supremacy is on the line.
Detroit 30, Minnesota 27: We’ve got good, old-fashioned NFC North “Black And Blue Division” football here. Wait, the game is indoors?! Well, that’s progress for you. Matt Stafford gets the edge in the controlled environment.
New England 31, Carolina 10: The Panthers can’t score, they’re on the road, and Tom Brady figures to wear them down.
Jacksonville 27, New York Jets 6: The Jets are at home, where they beat Miami last week. But they’re facing a young, fast team that, fortunately, isn’t being quarterbacked by Jay Cutler.
Arizona 17, San Francisco 13: The Cardinals are home for a second straight week, but it’s a short week coming off a Monday-night game. But there’re still the better team.
Philadelphia 30, Los Angeles Chargers 24: The Chargers keep finding ways to lose, while the Eagles seem rejuvenated–especially in the running game.
Tampa Bay 20, New York Giants 10: The Buccaneers don’t have an intimidating home-field advantage, but the Giants have been snakebit for three straight weeks. Head coach Ben McAdoo could be in trouble.
Oakland 26, Denver 23: Denver gets to lick its Buffalo-infested wounds at home against a division rival. Oakland is a good road team, its performance at Washington notwithstanding.
Seattle 19, Indianapolis 9 (SUNDAY NIGHT): This has the potential to be a real snoozer. Both teams are offensively challenged. But Seattle has the better defense and it’s a home game.
Kansas City 31, Washington 16 (MONDAY NIGHT): The Redskins get a second straight prime-time game in a contest that loom as “The Politically Incorrect Bowl” (for offensive team nicknames). I’m not sold on the Redskins’ defense, and now this team has to go on the road to play an unbeaten team.
I went 4 and 9 last week with 2 ties. Need some help Joey.
Hey, Kevin!
The fact that you had two ties tells me that you do the point-spread thing. My picks are STRAIGHT-UP ONLY because I just don’t believe in spreads. When two teams meet to play a game, the score begins 0-0, not 5 1/2 – 0!
I’d say the biggest key for me has been to simply stay as keenly aware as possible of trends, ups and downs around the NFL. It’s a tricky proposition, given the parity that exists. But to get a real feel for that sort of thing is key.
Last week WAS a crazy one, I’ll admit, but if you stick mostly with home teams, contending teams and healthy teams, you’ll win more often than not.
All the best,
Joey P