Storyline: A 9-3 season is possible–8-4 or 7-5 is more likely–but 10-2 isn’t out of the question.
Of the many surprises that emerged during college football’s first few days, the biggest surprise may have been Army’s unexpected 15-point win at Temple. It was a classic upset: presumably bad team beats presumably good team.
Courtesy: csnphilly.com
Temple was -14 against Army, but it was West Point–not the Owls–that scored twice in the 4th Quarter. The Knights won the game, 28-13, racking up nearly 350 yards on the ground.
What a turn of events. The Knights went 2-10 last year, including yet another loss–in a long string of losses–to rival Navy. Temple was coming off a 10-win season during a campaign that produced a monumental win at Penn State, a conference championship game, and a bowl appearance.
The win against Temple is a major achievement for Army–a school that has migrated from premier brand a half-century ago to one of the weakest programs (by winning percentage) in the college football today.
Army-Notre Dame, 1946 (photo, wtop.com)
Army was a collegiate juggernaut when Coach Red Blaik roamed the sidelines in the ’40s and ’50s. The Black Knights played a national schedule that included Notre Dame with games played often at Yankee Stadium. Army-Notre Dame football games made top-of-the-fold sports news season after season.
The Cadets have won five national college football championships over the years–three consecutive crowns under Blaik’s mentorship (1944-46)–but the football gods haven’t smiled on West Point recently. Army won 3 or fewer games 12 times since 2000 and has had only one winning season (7-6 in 2010) during that period.
This year should be different, though, hugely different. While Army won’t play many powerhouse squads (it will play ND, though) the Cadets should do better than it has in 20 years. The last big season for Army was 1996 when the Knights went 10-2 under Bob Sutton.
The 2016 schedule stacks up well. Here’s why.
Next up for Army is a home game against Rice. The Owls were dismantled this week at Western Kentucky. Then comes Texas-El Paso on the road followed by a home game against Buffalo. The Bulls opened the season with a startling home loss to lower-division SUNY at Albany. Duke, which is playing the year without its starting QB (lost via injury), comes next. Lafayette (another lower-division team), North Texas, and Wake Forest follow in order.
Albany stunned Buffalo in the ’16 opener for both teams (photo, ualbanysports.com)
So it’s not a stretch to project Army at 8-0 to start the year. But it gets tough after that. There’s Air Force on November 5, followed by ND (Nov. 12) and Navy (Dec. 10). Morgan State, in between (Nov. 19), rounds out the schedule.
A 9-3 season is possible–8-4 or 7-5 is more likely–but 10-2 isn’t out of the question.
What’s fascinating about Army’s schedule is that many of its 2016 competitors are among the weakest teams in college football. Consider this. A few years ago The Bleacher Report listed what it considered to be the 25 worst teams in college football history. Army wasn’t on that list, but look at the teams on Army’s schedule that were: Buffalo (#5), UTEP (#7), Rice (#9), Temple (#11), Wake Forest (#12), and Duke (#23). Those teams make up 50% of Army’s 2016 schedule.
Courtesy: inquisitr.com
But criticizing a soft schedule is beside the point. A winning season in football would bring hope to a school that has been without it for decades. A solid showing against Navy would help, too. Army hasn’t beaten Navy since 2001.
2016 may be the beginning of a turnaround for the Black Knights, a storied program that has fallen to college football’s depths.
It would be nice to see Army win again.
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Game predictions as of 9/3/16 with % chance of winning and losing, courtesy ESPN College Football Power Index
Army favored (N=7)
- 98.0 Morgan State
- 97.7 Lafayette
- 91.4 UNT
- 83.5 Rice
- 78.9 Buffalo
- 78.3 UTEP
- 58.1 AFA
Army as underdog (N=4)
- 90.1 ND
- 76.6 Duke
- 73.0 Wake Forest
- 53.6 Navy
