Courtesy of: USA Today
As summer fades like a perfectly struck drive on a dogleg right, and the audible back-to-school sighs of children everywhere fill the muggy night air, I am reborn with the knowledge that fantasy football season is upon us. That’s right, fantasy football. The reason we upgrade our internet speed, google words that rhyme with Kaepernick, and maybe, just maybe, the reason I am currently on “probation” at my job (though I contend that my decreased productivity arose from the streaming coverage of the Royal Baby birth, not the 127 mock drafts I’ve completed over the office WIFI).
The boss and I will continue to have “supervised meetings” to debate this, but one thing we both agree on is that you have to go running back early in your draft this year. Whoa whoa whoa…I’m getting ahead of myself here. Let’s start with a little introduction, shall we? Welcome to the debut of The Wordslinger’s Fantasy Formula, a draft blueprint that will help propel you towards league domination this season. Or at least that’s how I pitched it to our Editor-in-Chief here at The Sports Column to get his approval. My brief fantasy sports writing career, as well as your 2013 season, rides on the success of this column…so hop in and let’s ride this roller coaster together.
Before we dive into the specifics of my inaugural (hopefully) draft strategy column, let me take a moment to promote The Sports Column’s newest endeavor…a fantasy sports page. The fantasy sports industry is a multi-billion dollar revenue generator and the number of people playing fantasy sports jumps by the millions year after year. Every respected sports website, magazine, or network devotes space and time to those who play fantasy sports and with readership here at The Sports Column growing steadily, we felt it was time to get in the game as well. The timing of our unveiling is not coincidental. Fantasy football has become the Grand Poo-bah of fantasy sports, so what better time to test the waters of fantasy-land than football season!
So yours truly, as well as some of our other great columnists, will be following the 2013 NFL season from a fantasy perspective beginning today. We will bring you insights into weekly lineup decisions, injury updates, hot and cold players, and waiver wire pickups. We’ll answer your fantasy questions and tweets and provide you with our opinions and guidance throughout the year. We’ll even throw in a few surprises now and again that we haven’t even thought of yet (yep, this me making promises with no real plan on how to keep them), so stick with us and we’ll do our best to lead you down the path of fantasy success.
Now that the pleasantries are over, let’s get down to business. That’s why you’re here after all, right? You want to know the secrets to fantasy glory, the answers to those rotisserie riddles. Or you just want to see if I have any idea what I’m talking about. Either way, you’re here and that’s all that matters. Fantasy football mirrors the real thing in so many ways, from the weekly roster decisions to trade talks with ownership. But nowhere does that parallel seem as magnified as with the draft.
As with the NFL draft, your fantasy draft can make or break your franchise…maybe not long term (unless you’re in a keeper league…which we’ll get to another time), but certainly for this season. And as with the NFL draft, your fantasy draft hinges on your ability to evaluate talent and manage risk. I’ve played in a lot of leagues over the years, some friendly and some cutthroat, and I’ve tried my share of crafty strategies. I’ve tried stockpiling positional commodities like your creepy uncle’s collection of ceramic clowns. I’ve focused on home-run hitters with huge upside, hoping at least a couple pan out. Sometimes I’ve gotten lucky (you’re fooling yourself if you think luck doesn’t play a role in fantasy), other times not so much; but I’ve taken all those experiences, thrown them together in a blender and pureed them into a plan that you and I will use to bring home a championship this year.
Here’s the thing though…this isn’t the sexy way to play fantasy football. This is more like the cute-girl-next-door way to play. It’s not about hitting home runs; it’s about hitting for average. As I said just one short paragraph ago, the success of your fantasy season hinges on your ability to draft well and drafting well means managing risk. Can you win your league on the shoulders of one or two superstars? Absolutely. But when you put all your eggs in one basket and that basket struggles out of the gate, tears an ACL, and was last seen entering the office of Dr. James Andrews…well you get what I’m trying to say here.
Running Backs and Wide Receivers
Courtesy of: Yahoo Sports
Alright, enough with the generalizations…let’s talk specifics shall we? Over the past several seasons, the football landscape (both real and fantasy) has changed and evolved from ground and pound battles to a more aerial assault. From a fantasy perspective, we’ve moved away from the old school tenet of taking a RB in round one, and we’ve drifted to the new school precept of big-play receivers and TD-machine QBs. In fact, over the last 4 seasons, a standard 12-team league has seen as many WRs and QBs drafted in round one as RBs. You have to go back to 2008 to find a first round dominated by ball carriers. This makes total sense when you consider the direction that the NFL is headed, with a focus on quarterbacks and a severe devaluation of the running back position.
As the down field game grows, more and more teams are focusing their assets on top tier wideouts and franchise QBs and leaving the ground game to a committee of eclectic backs, none of whom tend to see more than 200 carries. This has led to the near extinction of the “work horse back” and suddenly makes the running back position sparse to say the least. In 2006, 10 players finished the season with over 300 carriers (including a ridiculous 416 from Larry Johnson). Last year that number was 5. Conversely, 2006 witnessed one player (Andre Johnson) hitting the century mark in receptions. In 2012, 6 players topped 100 grabs. What’s my point with all of this? There are fewer elite running backs than elite wide receivers in this year’s draft, so grab one as soon as possible or you’ll find yourself quickly behind the 8-ball.
“Oh c’mon Slinger, I can just grab my first RB in round 2.” (This is you having a fictional conversation with me)
You think so, huh? Well let’s take a look at that scenario for just a moment. Let’s assume you went WR in the first round and grabbed Calvin Johnson with that pick. Let’s also assume that at least 2 other owners in your league didn’t listen to my advice (seems like a conservative number) and went WR and QB respectively. Finally, based on Calvin’s average draft position, let’s also assume that you had the 7th pick (meaning your 2nd round pick would be #14 overall in a 10 team draft). Running backs with an ADP in the range of your next pick at #14 are as follows: Steven Jackson, Matt Forte, Stevan Ridley, Frank Gore, and Chris Johnson. You know what, I’ll even be generous here and say that LeSean McCoy could still be there as well, despite an ADP of 12.8 currently (based on ESPN standard league drafts).
A little research on these gentlemen reveals some discouraging facts about your potential #1 back. Only 2 of the 6 carried the ball more than 260 times for their teams last year (Jackson and Ridley) and only 1 topped double digit TDs (Ridley had 12). Five of these backs did reach the 1,000 yard mark (though that doesn’t carry the same weight that it used to) but many of them saw their average yards per carry decrease. McCoy finds himself with a new head coach, offensive scheme, and a crowded backfield this year. Jackson comes over to Atlanta where his win total should increase, but probably not his carry total. Forte continues to see TDs vultured by Michael Bush, Gore will likely see the same from QB sensation Colin Kaepernick, and who knows what to expect from Chris Johnson who once rushed for over 2,000 yards and now could very easily end of splitting time with Shonn Greene. The best of the bunch appears to be Ridley who certainly produced more than any of these other options. However, in a game against the 49ers last year, Ridley lost a fumble and was immediately pulled by head coach Bill Belichick who refused to put him back in the game. A head coach with a quick trigger can be nerve racking for fantasy owners.
To get back to my point with all of this; if you wait to draft a RB until the second round or later, you’ll be left with question marks and could likely spend the season playing musical chairs with every RB on your roster. Still not convinced? Let’s make this simple then. Which of these rosters, through the first 3 rounds, would you feel more comfortable building a team around? Jamaal Charles, Stevan Ridley, and Demariyus Thomas or Calvin Johnson, Chris Johnson, and David Wilson. Don’t worry, this isn’t a test. There is no right or wrong answer here, just a matter of preference. For me, I’d prefer the solidarity of my two backs and the top-5 talent of Thomas over the nail-biting concerns of CJ0K and the unproven Wilson, as well as praying that Megatron can duplicate his record-breaking 2012.
If you’re a risk-reward kind of person, certainly the speedy and deceptive Wilson could become a Charles type of player given the opportunity, and we’ve seen what Chris Johnson can do when he’s motivated and can get the blocking. But the point I will continue to drive home here is that being successful in fantasy football is all about managing that risk and putting yourself in the best position to win each and every week. So while this strategy may not work every year, for 2013 I’m taking RBs early and WRs later.
“But Slinger, what about the most important position in football…QB?”
Quarterbacks
Courtesy of: CS Monitor
I was going to get there, but since you’ve brought it up, let’s discuss. Quarterbacks score more points than any other position in fantasy, that’s the simple truth. Even with super-human seasons from Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson in 2012, neither was able to crack the top 5 in overall scoring. In fact according to ESPN standard scoring, 12 of the top 15 scoring leaders last year were quarterbacks. So if a quarterback is going to score you more points than any other position, doesn’t it make sense to take one of the best ones early? Absolutely not…in fact I contend that this year’s bounty of QBs is so strong, it makes it easier than ever to wait.
It’s easy to get caught up in the explosiveness of an elite quarterback like Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees. And with young guns like RGIII, Russell Wilson, and Colin Kaepernick having teased us with glimpses of their awesomeness last year, it would be hard not to pull the trigger early to get one on your squad. But look at it from a numbers perspective for a moment, taking emotion out of the equation, and I’ll bet the picture changes a bit.
Last year, the top 7 signal callers in fantasy scoring were separated by a total of 46 points. The top 11 by a total of 78 points. Break that down over the course of 13 regular season fantasy weeks and we see that the #1 fantasy QB scored roughly 3.5 more points each week than the #7 QB and about 6 points per week more than the #11 QB. In comparison, the difference between the #1 and #7 RB in 2013 was 98 points (or 7.5 per game) and 109 points between #1 and #11 (an average of nearly 8.5 points per game). Numbers schmumbers…let’s play the scenario game again.
In 2012, if you found yourself blinded by the efficiency and natural stage presence of Mr. Discount Double-Check himself, Aaron Rodgers, you likely used your first round pick on him. In round 2, perhaps you saw the error of your ways and selected a RB, let’s say Matt Forte, and did the same in round 3, selecting Darren Sproles. After the draft, you sat back, looked at your lineup and felt pretty good about the year to come. For the season, those three players totaled 627 fantasy points, or 48.2 points per week. Not bad. Now let’s assume you weren’t seduced by a QB and instead drafted 2 RBs in the first 2 rounds, followed by your starting QB in round 3. Those 3 players could have been Ray Rice (Rd. 1), Marshawn Lynch (Rd. 2), and Matt Ryan (Rd. 3). The combined total for those players was 732, or 56.3 points per week. Now obviously your selections could have worked out better or worse (you could have easily selected LeSean McCoy in Rd. 1 over Ray Rice, resulting in 72 less total points), but the overall point is simple. The value of good running back production is higher than that of good quarterback production because there are simply more good quarterbacks to go around. So while your league mates are rushing to grab Brees and Brady, just sit back and enjoy the stud RBs that fall into your lap. You’ll have plenty of time to find a solid QB a few rounds later.
Tight Ends
Courtesy of: Bleacher Report
So we’ve touched on the importance of getting solid running back production and we’ve mentioned the depth at both wide receiver and quarterback. But what about the other skill position that every fantasy squad must fill; the tight end? If ever there were a position of frustration for most fantasy owners, it would be TE. Last year, 5 TEs were selected in the first 6 rounds of most drafts, with Jimmy Graham of the Saints and Rob Gronkowski of the Patriots going in the 2nd round on average. Only those two players finished the year in the top 10 at their position (but neither cracked the top 75 in scoring overall). The rest of the top 10 TEs included players drafted in the 9th, 10th, 12th, and 14th rounds in most drafts, as well as 4 players that weren’t drafted at all.
What can we deduce from these tidbits of information? First of all, TE might be the most unpredictable skill position in fantasy. I mean c’mon, nearly half of the top 10 scorers weren’t considered draftable at the start of the season. And even if you’re Nostradamus and happen to get lucky, is it really worth the high draft spot it likely cost you? This Slinger thinks not; which is why I’m perfectly content being one of the last to fill my tight end roster spot (unless Graham – and only Graham – falls to me in the 5th round).
Defenses and Kickers
Best case scenario here is that I’ve barely been able to hold your attention for the last 2,500 words so I’m not about to drag you through a bunch of stats and scenarios for the two most unpredictable positions in fantasy football. If you’re up for it, here’s a little homework assignment for you. Go back through the past handful of seasons and find out how many kickers and defenses drafted among the top 5 at their position actually finished the season in the top 5 in scoring. Then take a look at the point differential between the #1 and, let’s say, #10 highest scoring player/team and see how big of a gap we’re talking about here.
If you don’t feel like doing the work, I’ll break it down for you right here. Simply put, don’t waste anything higher than a 14th round pick on a defense and don’t, under any circumstances, draft your kicker prior to the last round of your draft. Don’t do it. Don’t. Do. It. Wouldn’t you rather grab one more RB whose one depth chart spot away from a chance to show his team what he’s got? Or a WR who could easily develop a relationship with his QB over the first 4 games of the season and turn into a real asset down the stretch? I’m telling you (and if you don’t trust me yet, the numbers are also telling you), don’t waste an early pick on these spots.
Now before I open this cage and release you back into the wild for what we both hope will be a successful fantasy football season, let me conclude with a brief disclaimer. You know your league better than I do. You know the owners that you’ve likely been playing with for years, maybe even decades, better than I do. If your first round looks more like a QB only league, don’t hesitate to pull the trigger on your signal caller earlier than I’ve recommended. You have to let the draft play out and then bob and weave with the punches.
The strategies and blueprints I’ve laid out above are my opinions and they will serve as the foundation for how I’ll approach my own drafts this year. I’ve been playing this game for quite a while and feel I have a strong grasp on what leads to the most likely path to success (despite what some of my own league mates might say). So take what you want from this column and leave what you don’t, but always remember to have fun with it. Embrace the game, have a blast at your draft, and come back often throughout the season for more insights, opinions, and a little trash talk here at The Sports Column.
